Risk-Aware Strategies for DCA Investors

Let’s look at the the Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) investment approach that involves investing the same amount of money in a target security at regular intervals over a certain period of time, regardless of price. It can make it easier to deal with uncertain markets by making purchases automatic. It also supports an investor’s effort to invest regularly.

Table of Contents

1. RISK AWARE INVESTMENT
2. Stock Risk Engineering
3. Stock Technical Indicators
4. U.S. Recession Forecast
5. Basic Stock Price Analysis
6. Predicting Trend Reversals
7. Portfolio Risk/Return Optimization
8. Stock Breakouts
9. ML/AI/Stat Stock Predictions
10. Commodity Price Prediction
11. TradingView Platform
12. Macroaxis Wealth Optimization
13. Bear Market Investment Strategies
14. Inflation-Resistant Stocks to Buy
15. Stock Market Monitoring
16. Stock Technical Analysis
17. Key Takeaways
18. References
19. Acknowledgements
20. Infographics
21. Appendix A: REIT
22. Appendix B: Crypto
23. Appendix C: Stock Fundamentals

RISK AWARE INVESTMENT

• RISK AWARE INVESTMENT: GUIDE FOR EVERYONE
• Investment Risk Management Study
• Upswing Resilient Investor Guide
• Revision 360 of Risk Aware Investing after SVB Collapse – 1. The Financial Sector

Stock Risk Engineering

Eric Marsden’s Top 6 Reliability/Risk Engineering Learnings

• Stock Value at Risk (VaR)
• Stock Correlations

Stock Technical Indicators

• Advanced Integrated Data Visualization (AIDV) in Python – 1. Stock Technical Indicators
• Algorithmic Trading using Monte Carlo Predictions and 62 AI-Assisted Trading Technical Indicators (TTI)
• The CodeX-Aroon Auto-Trading Approach – the AAPL Use Case
• Python Technical Analysis for BioTech – Get Buy Alerts on ABBV in 2023
• Biotech Genmab Hold Alert via Fibonacci Retracement Trading Simulations

U.S. Recession Forecast

• Working with FRED API in Python: U.S. Recession Forecast & Beyond

Basic Stock Price Analysis

• Basic Stock Price Analysis in Python
• The $ASML Trading Strategies via the Plotly Stock Market Dashboard

Predicting Trend Reversals

• A Comparative Analysis of The 3 Best U.S. Growth Stocks in Q1’23 – 3. LYTS
• A Comparative Analysis of The 3 Best Global Growth Stocks in Q1’23 – 2. AZN
• Predicting Trend Reversal in Algorithmic Trading using Stochastic Oscillator in Python
• A TradeSanta’s Quick Guide to Best Swing Trading Indicators

Portfolio Risk/Return Optimization

• Joint Analysis of Bitcoin, Gold and Crude Oil Prices with Optimized Risk/Return in 2023
• Applying a Risk-Aware Portfolio Rebalancing Strategy to ETF, Energy, Pharma, and Aerospace/Defense Stocks in 2023
• Portfolio max(Return/Risk) Stochastic Optimization of 20 Dividend Growth Stocks
• Algorithmic Testing Stock Portfolios to Optimize the Risk/Reward Ratio
• Stock Portfolio Risk/Return Optimization
• Risk/Return QC via Portfolio Optimization – Current Positions of The Dividend Breeder
• Portfolio Optimization Risk/Return QC – Positions of Humble Div vs Dividend Glenn
• Risk/Return POA – Dr. Dividend’s Positions
• Bear vs. Bull Portfolio Risk/Return Optimization QC Analysis
• Towards Max(ROI/Risk) Trading in Q1 2023

Stock Breakouts

• The Donchian Channel vs Buy-and-Hold Breakout Trading Systems – $MO Use-Case
• The Qullamaggie’s OXY Swing Breakouts
• The Qullamaggie’s TSLA Breakouts for Swing Traders

ML/AI/Stat Stock Predictions

• Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) on $MO 8.07% DIV USA Stock Data 2022-23
• Predicting the JPM Stock Price and Breakouts with Auto ARIMA, FFT, LSTM and Technical Trading Indicators
• Risk-Return Analysis and LSTM Price Predictions of 4 Major Tech Stocks in 2023
• Towards Max(ROI/Risk) Trading in Q1 2023
• Stock Forecasting with FBProphet
• Short-Term Stock Market Price Prediction using Deep Learning Models
• AI-Driven Stock Prediction using Keras LSTM Models
• ML/AI Regression for Stock Prediction – AAPL Use Case
• S&P 500 Algorithmic Trading with FBProphet

Commodity Price Prediction

• Gold ETF Price Prediction using the Bayesian Ridge Linear Regression
• SARIMAX X-Validation of EIA Crude Oil Prices Forecast in 2023 – 2. Brent
• SARIMAX X-Validation of EIA Crude Oil Prices Forecast in 2023 – 1. WTI
• Gulf’s Oil Price Web Scraping in R

TradingView Platform

• Track All Markets with TradingView

Macroaxis Wealth Optimization

• Macroaxis AI Investment Opportunity
• Macroaxis Wealth Optimization
• Invest in AI via Macroaxis Sep ’22 Update

Bear Market Investment Strategies

• Are Blue-Chips Perfect for This Bear Market?
• Bear Market Similarity Analysis using Nasdaq 100 Index Data

Inflation-Resistant Stocks to Buy

• Inflation-Resistant Stocks to Buy

Stock Market Monitoring

• Stocks on Watch Tomorrow
• A Weekday Market Research Update
• Zacks Insights into the Commodity Bull Market
• Zacks Insights into this High Inflation/Rising Rate Market
• The Zacks Steady Investor – A Quick Look
• Zacks Investment Research Update Q4’22
• The Zacks Market Outlook Nov ’22 – Energy
• SeekingAlpha Risk/Reward July Rundown
• All Eyes on ETFs Sep ’22
• Stock Market ’22 Round Up & ’23 Outlook: Zacks Strategy vs Seeking Alpha Tactics
• Stocks to Watch in 2023: MarketBeat Ideas

Stock Technical Analysis

• OXY Stock Technical Analysis 17 May 2022
• OXY Stock Update Wednesday, 25 May 2022
• OXY Stock Analysis, Thursday, 23 June 2022
• AAPL Stock Technical Analysis 2 June 2022
• Energy E&P: XOM Technical Analysis Nov ’22

Key Takeaways

• DCA is one of the best strategies for beginning investors looking to trade ETFs.
• Most Dividend Reinvestment Plans (DRIPs) allow investors to DCA by making purchases regularly.
• Long-term DCA example: 401(k) plans for retirement offered by many American employers that have tax advantages for the saver.
• DCA is a way for an investor to deal with short-term market volatility/risk.
• Variant strategies for DCA to maximize ROI include scaled-up buying of securities in a downtrend market instead of a fixed amount and periodic purchase. Conversely, in an uptrend market, where shares are bullish, a scaled plan to sell is adopted.
• Benefits of Dollar-Cost Averaging

Risk reduction, lower cost, ride out market downturns, disciplined saving, prevents bad timing

Bottom Line: An investor should aim to include DCA as an optional strategy, combined with other strategies (target asset allocation, diversification, regular portfolio rebalancing, etc.) using portfolio optimization and algo trading in Python.

References

• Risk Engineering
• Investopedia
• Yahoo Finance
• Nasdaq Data Link
• FRED
• SEC
• TwelveData
• The MobiDev ML Approach to Demand Forecasting Demystified
• PRA

Acknowledgements

Community

Infographics

Macroaxis U.S. Energy Stock Heatmap

TradingView: XOM 1Y performance 2022

MacroAxis: Sector Rotations & Performance 2022

Appendix A: REIT

• US Real Estate – Harnessing the Power of AI
• Real Estate Supervised ML/AI Linear Regression Revisited – USA House Price Prediction
• Supervised Machine Learning Use Case: Prediction of House Prices

Appendix B: Crypto

• BTC-USD Price Prediction with LSTM Keras
• BTC-USD Freefall vs FB/Meta Prophet 2022-23 Predictions
• USDTUSD | Tether USD Analysis 6 Nov ’22

Appendix C: Stock Fundamentals

• XOM SMA-EMA-RSI Golden Crosses ’22
• An Interactive GPT Index and DeepLake Interface – 1. Amazon Financial Statements

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