Tag: forecasting
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Uber’s Orbit Full Bayesian Time Series Forecasting & Inference
This article introduces Orbit, an open-source Python framework by Uber for full Bayesian time series forecasting and inference. It supports models like Exponential Smoothing, Local Global Trend, and Kernel Time-based Regression, along with methods like Markov-Chain Monte Carlo and Variational Inference. Orbit captures uncertainty in time-series data, allowing credible probabilistic forecasts with confidence intervals. The…
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Retail Sales, Store Item Demand Time-Series Analysis/Forecasting: AutoEDA, FB Prophet, SARIMAX & Model Tuning
This study compares and evaluates various forecasting models to predict sales and demand for retail businesses. The focus is on Time Series Analysis (TSA) methods such as FB Prophet and SARIMAX. The final FB Prophet model yields MAE=4.252 and MAPE=0.168, while SARIMAX models’ best performing variant achieves MAE=6.285 and MAPE=0.213. The study emphasizes the importance…
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NVIDIA Rolling Volatility: GARCH & XGBoost
This post examines the prediction of NVIDIA stock volatility using two models: the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) and the Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost). Both models are compared in terms of MSE and MAPE. The post discovers that the machine learning-based XGBoost model outperforms the GARCH model in NVDA volatility forecasting, showing the effectiveness of…
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EUR/USD Forecast: Prophet vs JPM
JP Morgan (JPM) analysis predicts the EUR/USD exchange rate to hold at 1.08 in December 2023, while ING forecasts suggest rates of $1.00 throughout 2023 and $1.02 in Q1 2024, rising to $1.10 by Q4 2024. Using the FB Prophet model, predictions show a hold at 1.08 +/- 0.07 in December 2023, aligning with JPM’s…
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SARIMAX Crude Oil Prices Forecast – 1. WTI
The content discusses a detailed forecast of Brent and WTI oil prices for 2023, using Python, SARIMAX and Time Series Analysis. The data indicates volatility in the oil market starting 2023, with prices set to decrease from 2022 levels. Experts also warn of a potential US recession in 2023, which could further impact the oil…
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Multi-Label Keras CNN Image Classification of MNIST Fashion Clothing
Machine learning and deep learning are invaluable in optimizing supply chain operations in fashion retail. Even smaller retailers are leveraging ML algorithms to meet customer demands. Neural network models, particularly Convolution Neural Networks (CNN) are used to classify clothing images, like the Fashion-MNIST dataset, with high accuracy. Hyperparameter optimization using GridSearchCV and Nadam optimizer are…
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SARIMAX Forecasting of Online Food Delivery Sales
This article provides a beginner-friendly guide to understanding and evaluating ARIMA-based time-series forecasting models such as SARIMA and SARIMAX. It focuses on an QC-optimized SARIMA(X) model to forecast the e-commerce sales of a food delivery company. The post covers essential concepts, data processing, model comparisons, and insights. It also includes a comparison between SARIMA and…
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BTC-USD Freefall vs FB/Meta Prophet 2022-23 Predictions
It is widely recognized that crypto price prediction is considered a very challenging task, due to its chaotic (highly volatile) and very complex nature. Nethertheless, accurate predictions can assist crypto investors towards right investing decisions. Why not Predicting BTC-USD Prices Using Facebook’s Prophet? Let’s discuss this state-of-the-art model within the context of BTC-USD 2022-23 price prediction…
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S&P 500 Algorithmic Trading with FBProphet
We use Facebook’s Prophet to forecast S&P 500 stock adjusted close price. We plot the results simulating an initial investment of $1,000.
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