Tag: sarimax
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Walmart Weekly Sales Time Series Forecasting using SARIMAX & ML Models
The blog post delves into Time Series Forecasting (TSF), using SARIMAX and Supervised Machine Learning algorithms to predict Walmart’s weekly store sales. Factors affecting sales are investigated for strategies to increase revenues. The study additionally covers data preparation, feature correlation analysis, SARIMAX diagnostics, and the training of supervised ML models like Linear Regression, Random Forest,…
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Retail Sales, Store Item Demand Time-Series Analysis/Forecasting: AutoEDA, FB Prophet, SARIMAX & Model Tuning
This study compares and evaluates various forecasting models to predict sales and demand for retail businesses. The focus is on Time Series Analysis (TSA) methods such as FB Prophet and SARIMAX. The final FB Prophet model yields MAE=4.252 and MAPE=0.168, while SARIMAX models’ best performing variant achieves MAE=6.285 and MAPE=0.213. The study emphasizes the importance…
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Sales Forecasting: tslearn, Random Walk, Holt-Winters, SARIMAX, GARCH, Prophet, and LSTM
The data science project involves evaluating various sales forecasting algorithms in Python using a Kaggle time-series dataset. The forecasting algorithms include tslearn, Random Walk, Holt-Winters, SARIMA, GARCH, Prophet, LSTM and Di Pietro’s Model. The goal is to predict next month’s sales for a list of shops and products, which slightly changes every month. The best…
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Joint Analysis of Bitcoin, Gold and Crude Oil Prices
The content discusses a comprehensive analysis on a joint time-series analysis of Bitcoin, Gold and Crude Oil prices from 2021 to 2023. It explores data processing, exploratory data analysis before running a range of statistical tests, ARIMA models fitting, and finally, using the Markowitz portfolio optimization method. It then presents a detailed analysis, including data…
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JPM Breakouts: Auto ARIMA, FFT, LSTM & Stock Indicators
The post discusses predicting JPM stock prices for 2022-2023 using several predictive models like ARIMA, FFT, LSTM, and Technical Trading Indicators (TTIs) such as EMA, RSI, OBV, and MCAD. The ARIMA model used historical data, while the partial spectral decompositions of stock prices served as features for the FFT model. TTIs were calculated to validate…
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SARIMAX Crude Oil Prices Forecast – 2. Brent
This study focuses on validating the EIA energy forecast for the 2023 Brent crude oil spot price using SARIMAX time-series cross-validation. It includes prerequisites, data loading, ETS decomposition, ADF test, SARIMAX modeling, predictions, model evaluation, and summary. The predictions align with the EIA forecast, with discrepancies within predicted confidence intervals.
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SARIMAX Crude Oil Prices Forecast – 1. WTI
The content discusses a detailed forecast of Brent and WTI oil prices for 2023, using Python, SARIMAX and Time Series Analysis. The data indicates volatility in the oil market starting 2023, with prices set to decrease from 2022 levels. Experts also warn of a potential US recession in 2023, which could further impact the oil…
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SARIMAX Forecasting of Online Food Delivery Sales
This article provides a beginner-friendly guide to understanding and evaluating ARIMA-based time-series forecasting models such as SARIMA and SARIMAX. It focuses on an QC-optimized SARIMA(X) model to forecast the e-commerce sales of a food delivery company. The post covers essential concepts, data processing, model comparisons, and insights. It also includes a comparison between SARIMA and…
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