Tag: forecast
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Walmart Weekly Sales Time Series Forecasting using SARIMAX & ML Models
The blog post delves into Time Series Forecasting (TSF), using SARIMAX and Supervised Machine Learning algorithms to predict Walmart’s weekly store sales. Factors affecting sales are investigated for strategies to increase revenues. The study additionally covers data preparation, feature correlation analysis, SARIMAX diagnostics, and the training of supervised ML models like Linear Regression, Random Forest,…
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Retail Sales, Store Item Demand Time-Series Analysis/Forecasting: AutoEDA, FB Prophet, SARIMAX & Model Tuning
This study compares and evaluates various forecasting models to predict sales and demand for retail businesses. The focus is on Time Series Analysis (TSA) methods such as FB Prophet and SARIMAX. The final FB Prophet model yields MAE=4.252 and MAPE=0.168, while SARIMAX models’ best performing variant achieves MAE=6.285 and MAPE=0.213. The study emphasizes the importance…
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A Balanced Mix-and-Match Time Series Forecasting: ThymeBoost, Prophet, and AutoARIMA
The post evaluates the performance of popular Time Series Forecasting (TSF) methods, namely AutoARIMA, Facebook Prophet, and ThymeBoost on four real-world time series datasets: Air Passengers, U.S. Wholesale Price Index (WPI), BTC-USD price, and Peyton Manning. Each TSF model uses historical data to identify trends and make future predictions. Studies indicate that ThymeBoost, which combines…
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Oracle Monte Carlo Stock Simulations
Oracle Corporation’s significant developments in Generative AI have led to lucrative partnerships with Nvidia and Elon Musk’s xAI. Having secured contracts exceeding $4 billion for its Generation 2 Cloud designed for AI model training, Oracle’s earnings doubled in Q4 2023. Monte Carlo simulations align with Zacks Rank 3-Hold for ORCL, implying bullish potential with projected…
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Time Series Forecasting of Hourly U.S.A. Energy Consumption – PJM East Electricity Grid
Table of Contents PJME Data Let’s set the working directory YOURPATH and import the following key libraries Let’s read the input csv file in our working directory Let’s plot the time series Data Preparation Output: (113926, 1, 9) (113926,) (31439, 1, 9) (31439,) LSTM TSF Let’s plot the LSTM train/test val_loss history Output: MSE: 1811223.125…
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EUR/USD Forecast: Prophet vs JPM
JP Morgan (JPM) analysis predicts the EUR/USD exchange rate to hold at 1.08 in December 2023, while ING forecasts suggest rates of $1.00 throughout 2023 and $1.02 in Q1 2024, rising to $1.10 by Q4 2024. Using the FB Prophet model, predictions show a hold at 1.08 +/- 0.07 in December 2023, aligning with JPM’s…
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Post-SVB Risk Aware Investing
The recent collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and its repercussions have prompted a reevaluation of risk-aware investing in the US financial sector. The crisis has exposed the vulnerability of banks invested in long-term fixed income assets, highlighting the importance of diversification and risk management. Market indicators suggest continued volatility and uncertainty, urging investors to exercise…
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SARIMAX Crude Oil Prices Forecast – 2. Brent
This study focuses on validating the EIA energy forecast for the 2023 Brent crude oil spot price using SARIMAX time-series cross-validation. It includes prerequisites, data loading, ETS decomposition, ADF test, SARIMAX modeling, predictions, model evaluation, and summary. The predictions align with the EIA forecast, with discrepancies within predicted confidence intervals.
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Comparison of Global Growth Stocks – 2. AZN
Summary: A comprehensive QC assessment of top growth stocks in Q1’23 was conducted, focusing on A-rated AstraZeneca PLC (AZN) in the biopharmaceutical industry. The company’s financial indicators, technical analysis, and algorithmic trading signals were analyzed. Backtesting showed a 34% profit from investing in AZN, outperforming the benchmark by 50%.
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Comparison of U.S. Growth Stocks – 1. WMT
The U.S. labor market and consumer spending are robust despite economic challenges. Bank of America reports a 5.1% rise in credit and debit card spending in January. The focus is on A-rated growth stocks like Walmart Inc. (WMT), with promising metrics and technical indicators supporting a Strong Buy sentiment. Algo trading with DI shows successful…
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SARIMAX Crude Oil Prices Forecast – 1. WTI
The content discusses a detailed forecast of Brent and WTI oil prices for 2023, using Python, SARIMAX and Time Series Analysis. The data indicates volatility in the oil market starting 2023, with prices set to decrease from 2022 levels. Experts also warn of a potential US recession in 2023, which could further impact the oil…
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SARIMAX Forecasting of Online Food Delivery Sales
This article provides a beginner-friendly guide to understanding and evaluating ARIMA-based time-series forecasting models such as SARIMA and SARIMAX. It focuses on an QC-optimized SARIMA(X) model to forecast the e-commerce sales of a food delivery company. The post covers essential concepts, data processing, model comparisons, and insights. It also includes a comparison between SARIMA and…
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BTC-USD Freefall vs FB/Meta Prophet 2022-23 Predictions
It is widely recognized that crypto price prediction is considered a very challenging task, due to its chaotic (highly volatile) and very complex nature. Nethertheless, accurate predictions can assist crypto investors towards right investing decisions. Why not Predicting BTC-USD Prices Using Facebook’s Prophet? Let’s discuss this state-of-the-art model within the context of BTC-USD 2022-23 price prediction…
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Stock Forecasting with FBProphet
Prophet from Meta (Facebook) is a procedure for forecasting time series data such as stocks. Prophet is robust to missing data and shifts in the trend, and typically handles outliers well.
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