Sunday, September 25, 2022
- U.S. housing starts rose 12.2% in August, while building permits fell 10%
- Metaverse funds top $2bn as Fidelity, LGIM, Franklin chase ‘theme du jour’
- Brace yourself: The Fed will inflict ‘some pain’ with its 75-basis-point rate hike. Here’s how to protect your wallet and your portfolio.
- Tropical Storm Ian strengthens as it heads to Cuba, Florida
- Investors could get another reality check with major averages having fallen in five of the last six weeks with the Federal Reserve maintaining a hawkish position on interest rates and recession fears cropping up again.
- Soaring bond yields and a strong U.S. dollar have reset valuations and earnings expectations on nearly every sector.
- The week ahead will see a flurry of economic releases including the latest updates on durable orders, consumer confidence, new home sales, GDP, and PCE prices.
- Bitcoin And Ethereum Are Parting Ways
- IPOs: Luxury real estate developer Lead Real Estate (LRE) is scheduled to start trading on September 27 and tech firm Beamr Imaging (BMR) has an IPO debut date of September 30.
- ETF Ideas: SPY: I Covered The Short Position.
- Dividend Ideas: Important Message To REIT Investors.
- Stock Ideas: Microsoft – Buy Here And Ride Through The Coming Recession.
- Tesla AI Day preview: Tesla (TSLA) will hold its highly-anticipated AI Day event on September 30 with updates expected on full self-driving cars, the Dojo supercomputer, the robotaxi program, and a potential unveiling of the Tesla Bot.
The corporate calendar: Twitter (TWTR) will depose Elon Musk, Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) will hold a key innovation event, Amazon (AMZN) will showcase new products, and Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) will hold its highly-anticipated AI Day in Palo Alto, California.
Looks like a heavy week on the schedule!
The Golden Era of Value Investing is Back
By: Tracey Ryniec
September 24, 2022
- In 2022, with stocks off their highs by double digits, Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway deployed $51 billion of the cash hoard into energy stocks.
- Energy was the best performing sector in 2021, and remains at the top again in 2022; but, in another tie in to the 1970s, it was also one of the top performers of the 1970s.
3 Signs the Golden Era is Returning:
- P/E Ratios are Dropping
- Dividend Yields are Rising
- Dollar Cost Averaging Works
Sectors On Watch:
ICLN – Clean Energy
TAN – Solar
XBI – Biotech
$XLU – Utilites
XME – Metals & Miners
Friday, September 9, 2022
- U.S. stock futures point to third day of gains ahead of next week’s inflation report.
- Investors bet that tough talk from Federal Reserve officials now won’t prevent a pivot down the road.
- The S&P 500 has gained 2.5% over the last two sessions.
- Markets have absorbed two days of hawkish speeches from Federal Reserve officials, as well as 75-basis point interest rate hikes from the Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank.
- There also are expectations the U.S. Labor Department will report a month-on-month decline in consumer prices next week, as market-derived measures of inflation expectations also are falling.
- Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average YM00, 0.67% rose 228 points, or 0.7%, to 32089.
- Futures on the S&P 500 ES00, 0.74% gained 30.5 points, or 0.8%, to 4036.
- Futures on the Nasdaq 100 NQ00, 0.96% increased 118.25 points, or 1%, to 12516.
- Stocks closed higher again yesterday with all of the major indexes up by 0.60% or more.
- Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, yesterday, reiterated the Fed’s commitment to tackling inflation.
- The market clearly liked the tough talk on inflation since many doubted the Fed’s resolve. And high inflation is far worse for the economy than higher interest rates.
- With a robust jobs market, strong consumer demand, positive GDP forecasts for the second half of the year (Q3 right now is estimated to come in at 1.4%, which is way better than Q2’s -0.6% and Q1’s -1.6%), and evidence that peak inflation is behind us, there’s plenty of reason to believe that we can head much higher from here.
- Weekly Jobless Claims came in better than expected at 222,000, down -6,000 from last month’s downwardly revised 228K and views for 240K.
- The EU energy ministers will be meeting to discuss rising energy prices.
- Yesterday, the European Central Bank (ECB) raised rates by 75 basis points to address their soaring inflation.
- Good News for Investors: Our Green Future Requires Massive Amounts of Copper. For all of this lithium talk, massive amounts of COPPER needed to build an electric car. Just one EV engine requires 10 TIMES more copper compared to a traditional, gas-powered car. Read more here.
- Falling oil prices, and an improving GDP outlook, sent stocks soaring. Even though OPEC+ announced earlier in the week that they would cut oil production by 100,000 barrels a day beginning in October, crude oil still fell by more than -5% yesterday.
- Inflation has ticked lower each month for the last 2 months. And with energy prices falling, that should serve to lower inflation even more. It’s still near 40-year highs. But if peak inflation is in the rear view mirror, that bodes well for the economy.
- Crypto: Argo Blockchain Continues Buildout As Bitcoin Price Tumbles Under $20K
- Tech Daily – DigitalOcean: Is It Time To Buy The Dip?
- Market Outlook – Bulls Back Below 20%, Bearish sentiment in turn has rocketed higher, climbing back above 50% last week and rising further to 53.3% this week.
- Have You Experienced ‘Tool Sprawl’ In Cybersecurity? For investors seeking to implement an investment strategy focused on the future of cybersecurity offerings, consider the WisdomTree Cybersecurity Fund.
- Another 60% Or More Downside Is Possible For Nvidia Stock.
- ETF & Portfolio Strategy – SZC: An Attractive Play In The NextGen Energy Infrastructure Space; Green’s Portfolio: CEFs And Swing Trading Getting Me Through This Bear Market.
- Global Investing – ZIM’s 80% Dividend Is Not Too Good To Be True.
- Dividend Ideas – Ford Motor Company’s stock has been firing on all cylinders, outpacing the S&P 500 by 16%.
- Stock Ideas – Roblox: Analyzing The Growth Story; Amazon: Time To Be Greedy
Summary and potential trade setup
::: AAPL 8hour/candle chart review
::: bullish fractal in progress now
::: in-line with my NDX/ NAS100 setup
::: setup still valid as of today
::: XABCD pattern setup point C at 144 USD
::: expecting bullish reversal in October
::: NOT A BEARISH SETUP!
::: strong prior UPTREND so MORE GAINS
::: November/October strong month
::: BULLS focus on buying dips
::: currently final pullback mode ON
::: BUY/HOLD near my level for best results
::: currently drifting lower on auto-pilot
::: lower risk setup is BUY/HOLD
::: exit at 195/200 USD end of Q4 2022
::: strong bullish chart expect more gains
::: TP BULLS TP1 195 USD TP2 205 USD
::: BUY/HOLD setup with great risk:reward
::: BULLS TP FINAL is 205 USD end of Q4 2022
::: recommend to BUY/HOLD at 144 USD
::: recommended strategy:BUY/HOLD
::: SWING trade setup do not expect
Tuesday, August 9, 2022
Sectors On Watch:
barchart opinion: 8% BUY Composite Indicator
Medium Term Indicators 50% SELL
Zacks Latest Highlights:
Stocks End Mixed After Heady Gains Over The Last Seven Weeks
- Stocks closed narrowly mixed with the Dow up 0.09%, while the S&P and Nasdaq were down -0.12% and -0.10% respectively.
- We are likely to get it come Wednesday (8/10) when the next Consumer Price Index (CPI) comes out showing whether inflation has finally peaked or if it’s still climbing.
- So Wednesday’s inflation report could give us some indication as to which way the Fed will go.
- Since the June lows were put in, the Dow is up by 9.71%, the S&P is up by 12.9%, and the Nasdaq is up by 18.8%.
- The major indexes are still down by double digits. Once the indexes are able to close up by 20% or more from their lowest close, that’s when the bear market will officially be over, and a new bull market will officially begin.
SeekingAlpha Breaking News:
Crypto prices could have ‘found a floor’ as bitcoin, ether surge in July, J.P. Morgan analyst says. The cyclical slumps in bitcoin (BTC-USD) and ethereum (ETH-USD) that started in November 2021 could have “found a floor” as they blasted higher in July.
Micron Technology (MU) plans to invest $40B through the end of the decade to build leading-edge memory manufacturing in multiple phases in the U.S.
- In this article, I will present three ways how investors could value Google.
- My analysis finds that Google is a strong buying opportunity, no matter the valuation method.
- The relative multiple comparison indicates a $173 target price.
- The sum-of-the-parts valuation implies $187 as fair.
- The residual earnings model calculates a $156.24 target.
ETF & Portfolio Strategy
- We prefer investment grade credit over equities right now. Our reasoning: valuations, strong balance sheets, low supply and moderate refinancing risks.
- U.S. data last week showed strong job creation but still low labor participation. Stocks lost steam and bond yields spiked as markets priced in more Fed hikes.
- We expect U.S. CPI and PPI data this week to show that high inflation is persisting. China’s social financing and CPI inflation data are also in focus.
- KLA maintains a dominant market share in the semiconductor metrology/inspection equipment market with more than a 55% share.
- KLA’s HoH revenues grew 32%, outpacing Applied Materials (5.8%), Lam Research (6.6%), and ASML (-8%).
- KLA estimates its 2022 revenue growth at 20% versus 9% for the WFE market.
- KLA will be least impacted by an upcoming semiconductor slowdown and U.S. Sanctions to China versus WFE peers.
- MPW’s transparency is awful, I think. After evaluating the bullish and bearish cases, I changed my view. That makes me the lone bear on Seeking Alpha.
- The exposure to Steward creates a dramatic risk factor that could severely punish investors. The dividend is just one of the things jeopardized by this exposure.
- Investors and analysts have been told explicitly that MPW has no intention to file the 10-K for Steward. That document would help investors quantify that risk.
- Hospital operators are having a terrible year. We can use a publicly traded peer for Steward to witness the dramatic decline in equity value.
- Rather than reducing exposure to Steward, MPW provided them with a debt facility for another $150 million. MPW is doing the exact opposite of everything we want to see from a REIT.
In Asia, Japan -0.9%. Hong Kong -0.2%. China +0.3%. India closed.
In Europe, at midday, London flat. Paris -0.4%. Frankfurt -0.9%.
Monday, August 1, 2022
All eyes go to $AMD as they report on Tuesday after market close.
Zacks Update: Stocks Up On Friday, For The Week, And For The Month
- Stocks rallied again on Friday with the Dow up 0.97%, the S&P up 1.42%, and the Nasdaq up 1.88%.
- Friday marked the end of the week, and the end of the month.
- For the week, all of the indexes were up for the second week in a row. The Dow gained 2.96%, the S&P gained 4.26%, and the Nasdaq gained 4.70%.
- For the month, the gains were even more impressive with the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq up 6.73%, 9.11% and 12.35% respectively. It was the S&P’s best monthly gain since November 2020.
- Lastly, since the markets bottomed in June, they have soared with the big three indexes up by 9.75%, 12.64% and 16.39%. Let me also include the small-cap Russell 2000 as they’ve put in a stellar 14.27% gain since bottoming in June.
- Better than expected earnings and upbeat guidance, especially from big tech last week, including Apple, Amazon, Google, and Microsoft, gave investors something to cheer about.
- It’s been a fantastic earnings season so far. And that continues with another 1,826 companies reporting this week. And then another 1,602 companies on deck for next week.
|Amazon cost cuts can’t stop a second consecutive loss, but sales beat sends stock more than 10% higher|
SeekingAlpha Update July 29, 2022
- Bitcoin extends rally as markets price in slower rate hikes after back-to-back negative GDP prints.
- Singapore-based crypto exchange Zipmex files for bankruptcy protection
- Long-term reasons for a bullish case for Coinbase.
SA Tech Daily:
Premier: Attractively Valued In An Important Market
Why T-Mobile Is A Buy After Q2 Earnings
- T-Mobile missed earnings estimates but gave impressive forward guidance.
- The company raised guidance across the board. Management forecasts over 6 million postpaid net customer additions and over 10% core adjusted EBITDA growth.
- The company is ahead in the 5G market. It is leveraging its advantages to enter the high speed internet service business.
- I think the shares are cheap, trading at just over 10 times EV/core adjusted EBITDA.
Equity Factor Insights – Quarterly Report:
- Dividend Yield, Low Vol and Value factors generally fared best in the turbulent Q2 as investors sought safety in steadier, dividend-paying stocks and fled pricier growth stocks.
- In a sharp U-turn from Q1, nearly all EM factors lagged in Q2. Unlike elsewhere, Yield & Low Vol retreated, hurt by underexposures to outlier gains in Discretionary stocks.
- Though still a source of outperformance in most markets in Q2, the rotation into Value from Quality lost steam in the final weeks of the period. This shift corresponded with rising investor fears of recession.
- Forward P/Es continued to contract, with nearly all US factors now trading below their long-term averages in both absolute and relative terms.
ETF & Portfolio Strategy:
SLV: Buy Silver As Monetary Conditions Ease
TDTT Vs. TIP: Duration Matters With TIPS ETFs Too
Use 3D Volatility Ratios For Investment Decision Making
- Alibaba Vs. JD.Com: Let’s Hear The Bears Out
- Obsidian Energy: Low Multiples Make This One A Buy
- Teva Q2 Earnings: 5 Reasons Why Shares Rose By 30%
- Chevron stock is trading at a 20% discount to its 52-week high of $182.
- Energy Transfer: 8.5% Yield And The Massive Hikes Continue
- Buffett Doesn’t Buy Real Estate? Ask STORE Capital.
- Exxon Mobil shares jump after earnings and revenue blow past consensus estimates
- Apple stock gains as iPhone powers earnings beat past big decline in Mac sales
- Amazon cost cuts can’t stop a second consecutive loss, but sales beat sends stock more than 10% higher
Zacks Profit from the Pros Wednesday, July 20, 2022
Stocks Closed Sharply Higher On Strong Earnings
Another day of strong earnings lifted stocks. And they rallied all throughout the day, hitting their highs at the close.
- Even Netflix reported stronger than expected earnings (after the close yesterday) with a 10.34% positive EPS surprise. Although, sales missed by -0.70% due to unfavorable foreign exchange. But that was still a 1.30% q/q sales increase. They also reported better than expected subscriber loss, shedding ‘only’ 1 million subscribers vs. the 2 million that had been expected. And they are projecting a gain of 1 million new subscribers next quarter. They were up 5.61% during the normal session. And another 8% in after-hours trade.
- The big event everybody is really waiting for is next week’s Fed meeting when they’ll announce whether they raised rates by 50, 75 or 100 basis points.
$SPY Daily – We’re back testing the 50 SMA pre-market. My eyes are on $393 to see if we can break and close over.
$QQQ Daily – If we can hold $298, we should see $300, then $305. Tech has been much stronger of late.
|CHARTS OF INTEREST|
|NEW: $UNG – Energy is starting to pick up steam. Oil, coal & natural gas are back in play. https://share.trendspider.com/chart/UNG/7845tkfvh7$AEHR – Breaking out on earnings https://share.trendspider.com/chart/AEHR/7845tk0tnm$NFLX – Breaking out on earnings https://share.trendspider.com/chart/NFLX/7845tk2662$MARA – Monster move this week (40% move yesterday) https://share.trendspider.com/chart/MARA/7845tk3cn6$BTU – Tight under the 50 SMA, earnings next week https://share.trendspider.com/chart/BTU/7845tk9bhn|
MarketWatch Bulletin Tue, Jul 19, 10:09 PM
TradingView Community Weekly Newsletter Tue, Jul 19, 9:25 PM
Let’s jump in. We’ve sorted each Author by the asset class they focus on. Click on their profile, and see if you like the ideas they’re putting out!
And there you have it!
|Earnings highlights from the previous week: Citigroup, Blackrock, Delta Airlines, and JP Morgan Chase.|
SeekingAlpha as of Wednesday, July 20, 2022
- Bitcoin, crypto stocks extend rally as equity market gains bullish momentum
- Coinbase pauses Bitcoin SV withdrawals, Bitcoin SV (BSV-USD) is rising 5.4% Tuesday afternoon.
- MicroStrategy: Drastic Correction Imminent. With $2.3B of debt, MSTR may pledge or sell unencumbered Bitcoin, otherwise additional debt or share dilution would follow. Investors, get out while you can. Sell, sell, and sell.
- GBTC: If You Liked It At A Premium, You Love It At A 30% Discount.
- Bitcoin could hit $500K by 2027, Galaxy Digital’s Mike Novogratz says.
Lockheed Martin Trims Outlook, Still A Buy.
Lockheed Martin Non-GAAP EPS of $6.32 misses by $0.07, revenue of $15.45B misses by $570M
LMT’s guidance lowers sales forecast, but profit forecast remains unaltered. A look at the numbers shows us that Lockheed Martin did indeed miss the consensus on top and bottom lines. However, having a closer look at the numbers we see that due to strong margin execution, profits remained relatively stable and Lockheed Martin still guides for a strong year with slightly lower revenues but similar profits. Additionally, the free cash flow guide of $6 billion has been maintained. So, what we are really seeing is that supply chain issues are being offset by strong margin execution which also leaves me to think that when these issues start dissolving Lockheed Martin will see topline recovery in combination with boosted margins. I believe that that provides a very attractive investment opportunity in the current defense and geopolitical landscape.
ETF & Portfolio Strategy:
- ERH is an interesting closed-end fund with an unusual focus on utility exposure and high yield.
- The VanEck Emerging Markets Fund returned -12.56% during the second quarter of 2022, driven primarily by a clear regime shift from inflation to growth concerns and weakening global demand.
- The MSCI Emerging Markets Investable Market Index returned -12.10% during the second quarter of 2022.
- Today’s Active Investment Strategy Prospect: Fair Isaac Corporation – A 3-5 month prospect from here of FICO share prices could reasonably range from a low $423.46 to a high $513.42 from its present price of $428.30, up +19.9%. 24 prior positions like today’s in 1261 past 5 years’ market days produced 12.2% average net gains during typical 25 market days (5 weeks) an annual 227% CAGR.
- Mid-cap value has been one of the best-performing asset classes. Over time, it’s been one of the best risk-adjusted returns. Mid-cap value companies are small enough and nimble enough to effect change that can really create meaningful shareholder value.
- Dividend Ideas: Energy Transfer yields nearly 8% and has committed to increasing its distribution by another 50%. The company could cover the increased distribution by 1.8x with free cash flow.
- Stock Ideas: Nokia is successfully executing on its turnaround. The company is becoming more efficient at allocating capital and its current valuation is cheap.
- Exxon Mobil And Chevron: Winter Is Coming. Exxon Mobil and Chevron will be the top candidates to fill the natural gas holes caused by the Russian/Ukraine war.
Global Investing: Signs That Rio Tinto Could Buy Nano One. This is the end of Nano One as we know it. The company is transforming and with a new partnership with Rio Tinto, things could get very interesting.
Pup’s Weekday Dig Fri, Jul 8 @ThePupOfWallSt
- $PDD (UPDATE) – The squeeze is still setting up, we need to remain patient
- $JKS (UPDATE) – Ladies and gentlemen, we nailed this trade. Congrats!
- $GLBE (UPDATE) – We’re slowly grinding higher
- $MRNA (UPDATE) – I highlighted this on Wednesday, although it was not an official trade alert. Beautiful breakout continuation.
- $DLTR – TTM squeeze fired off yesterday and we’re pushing higher this morning
- $NBIX – $100 is still a good trigger to the upside
- $LHX – Still seeing resistance at $246. Set your alerts
- $GO – Just keeps going. No official trade alert but I have been covering this since 6/17 through $39.
As of Sat, Jul 09, 2022 08:00 ET
- Blockchain.com stands to lose $270M on loans to crypto hedge fund Three Arrows Capital
- Bitcoin’s feverish connection to the S&P 500 finally broke in June, with the 30-day S&P/BTC correlation falling from 0.77 to 0.25.
- As Ethereum represents ~65% of the AUM locked in DeFi, ETH was disproportionately sold.
- Exchange tokens fell 28% this month, modestly outperforming the market overall.
It Is Time To Take Profits In AT&T
Global Investing: Could Stellantis Stealthily Be The Fourth Most Valuable Auto Manufacturer?
ETF & Portfolio Strategy: VB: U.S. Small Caps Look Cheap, Holding Key Support
- Vanguard’s popular small-cap fund, VB, offers low-cost and liquid access to a broad index of low-market cap stocks.
- The ETF features a low P/E ratio, suggesting strong future returns.
- Its technical chart also appears bullish, holding a key retracement level and prior highs from 2018 and 2020.
- Altria Crashed: With A Yield Near 9%, Is It A Smoking Hot Pick Or A Melting Ice Cube?
- BST And BSTZ: 9-11% Yields, Monthly Payers At A Discount
Wall Street Breakfast: What Moved Markets
Stocks closed mostly lower Friday following a strong June jobs report, while still posting gains in the first full trading week of July. The U.S. economy added a stronger than expected 372,000 jobs in June, and the unemployment rate held steady at a healthy 3.6%. The three major market indices finished higher for the week, with the Nasdaq Composite jumping 4.6%, the S&P 500 gaining 1.9%, and the Dow Jones edging 0.8% higher. Next week starts second quarter earnings reports, and investors will examine the effects of commodity price and shipping cost pressures on companies’ profit margins.
As of Sat, Jun 25, 2022 07:55 ET
S&P 500: A Warning To All Investors
- After a decade of S&P 500 outperformance, Warren Buffett is issuing a dire warning to investors, stating that the future could be markedly different from the past.
- The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF is likely to disappoint investors in the decade ahead, returning just 6% per annum.
- Global Investing: Shopify is set to split its stock 10-for-1 over the coming days.
- Polestar: EV maker completed SPAC deal last week.
- ETH will soon undergo “The Merge” and move to a PoS consensus mechanism.
- Sell Alert: The REIT market is very volatile at the moment.
- Dividend Ideas: PennantPark 10% Yield, 14% Discount, Monthly Payer, Benefits From Rising Rates
Saturday, 18 June 2022
U.S. stocks entered a technical bear market this week, with the S&P 500 index declining more than -20% from its January peak.
How to Survive this Bear Market?
- The key for investors is to focus on the fundamentals.
- This time around the problem is inflation, which many believe can only get worse. There is also a seemingly widely-held belief that the U.S. economy is already in freefall, which has driven pessimism to extremes.
- Last week’s University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey found that Americans are more dissatisfied with the economy today than they were in the depths of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis.
- Small businesses are reporting low levels of optimism about the economy, but at the same time, they’re trying to bring on more workers. This leads me to believe we are experiencing a recession-less, sentiment-driven bear market that is not likely to resemble the big, fundamentally-driven bear markets of 2000 and 2008.
The table below shows how the S&P 500 has historically responded in the months and years after closing in a bear market.
Bottom Line for Investors
As for what investors should do now, my answer is not to panic and to stick to your plan. Trying to time the bottom of a bear market is hazardous and ripe for making a serious misstep, so I strongly caution against attempting to do so. About a third of the stock market’s best days have happened within the first two months of a bull market, which we will only be able to confirm with the benefit of hindsight. The biggest risk now, in my view, is being on the sidelines when that happens.
Zacks Investment Management
227 West Monroe
Chicago, Illinois 60606
Tuesday, 14 June 2022
- Stocks plunged again yesterday on inflation fears, and uncertainty over what the Fed will do on interest rates.
- The Nasdaq was the biggest decliner yesterday giving up -4.68%. They have been in a bear market since March, and made a new low again yesterday, closing down -32.7% from their all-time high close.
- But the big news was in the S&P, which gave up -3.88% yesterday, and officially entered bear market territory as it closed down -21.8% from its all-time high close.
AI and Machine Learning could be 4x bigger than the mobile economy that fueled the gains from Facebook, Apple and Google.
Enterprises are now the predominant customers over consumers. Companies like Google and Microsoft are spending billions on tech.
New Business Models
Instead of SAAS and subscriptions, profits are driven by an exponential increase in data consumption.
This isn’t a future trend – it’s happening right now. Capital expenditures on cloud computing, processing power and cybersecurity are ramping up everywhere. Facebook alone will spend up to $34 billion this year in its pursuit of the metaverse.
- Dividend Ideas: Simon Property – One Of The Best Yields Out There.
- Intel: Back Below 2018 Lows – But Still Not A Buy
- ETF & Portfolio: QQQ: The Nasdaq 100 Declines Are Far From Over.
- LVHD: Low-Volatility High Dividend ETF.
- Cryptocurrency Daily Digest
- Bitcoin has slipped below $23,000 for the first time since 2020, invoking fears of a long, crypto winter ahead.
- Tesla could take a big loss on its Bitcoin bets
- Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange, briefly halts bitcoin withdrawals (update).
Seeking Alpha The Week Ahead, Sunday, 12 June 2022
Investors are not likely to get a break from the recent market volatility.
Following a hot CPI report, the odds for a 75-point rate hike jumped to 20% from 5% to add some intrigue to the meeting.
In the crypto world, Ethereum (ETH-USD) could make some news as it continues to work to shift from the energy-intensive proof-of-work method for securing the network to a proof-of-stake model with lower transactions costs.
Earnings spotlight: $ORCL, $PL, $LICY, $CXM, $WLY, $ADBE, $KR, and $JBL.
IPO watch: Connexa Sports Technologies is expected to start trading on June 14.
The 1-Minute Market Report – June 12, 2022
- We are in a rolling bear market, with 65% of all stocks down 20% or more.
- An increasingly aggressive Fed, red-hot inflation, slowing economic growth, and the war in Europe are formidable headwinds.
- Blockchain is the worst performing asset class, with Bitcoin down by 58% from its November 2021 peak.
- Commodities have performed well this year, with the surge in oil, coal, natural gas, gasoline, agricultural products all spiking higher due to strong demand and tight supplies.
- S&P 500 Suffers Worst Back-To-Back Days In 2 Years.
- Monday is going to be interesting: A bounce, or the beginning of the next leg down.
- Among the other standouts is Intel, which dropped below $40 on Friday, its lowest closing price since October 2017.
TradingView Weekly Update, Tuesday, 7 June 2022
Bitcoin & Gold shown below.
The March 2021 high (A) was followed by a roughly equal price high (B). However, the MACD momentum peaked at a significantly lower high (Line A1-B1), forming a classic divergence that suggested that upward momentum was fading.
• At point C, the weekly MACD moved onto a sell signal (the fast moving average crossed below the slower moving average) strongly suggesting that positions should be either lightened or sold.
• After the sell signal was generated, price declined from 50 to 24.
• A weekly MACD buy signal was then generated at point D. The subsequent rally carried price near the prior high.
• The failure of the MACD to match its prior high warned of potential weakness.
• The MACD generated another sell signal at point E, suggesting lightening or selling positions. Price offered another decline from 50 to 24.
• After a multi-week consolidation in March-April 2022, price broke below the support @24 (S1-S2).
• MACD continues to decline, suggesting that the price decline may not be over, notwithstanding interim rallies.
• Before considering a new long, evidence of stabilization at a low and the gradual reversal of the daily, weekly and eventually, monthly MACDs would be required.
Bitcoin – We have not seen a capitulation yet
Seeking Alpha Update Mon, 6 June 2022
- BP Is Undervalued. BP’s P/E ratio of 5.6X indicates upward revaluation potential.
- SPY: Technical Bounce, Signals Still Bullish. The bounce hit resistance around $416 as expected and has now dropped back to test support.
- Genco Shipping: 12% Yield, Low Debt, Very Strong Earnings.
- Apple (AAPL) is slated to kick off its annual Worldwide Developers Conference at 1:00 p.m. in NY and expectations are that it will be a jam-packed affair, with a number of software updates.
- Cosmos’ Interoperability Makes It A Strategic Blockchain Investment.
- Palantir And DocuSign Have Likely Bottomed.
- Microsoft doesn’t have a high yield, but high and consistent dividend growth is backed by impressive financials.
- Negative sentiment and price action have affected both the underlying digital assets themselves and digital assets companies.
- High-growth equity stocks can suffer in rising interest rate environments, as investors re-value (by selling) companies in light of more substantial future interest payments.
- Digital assets and digital assets equities have underperformed the broad equity market this year.
Seeking Alpha June 05 Update: The Week Ahead
Economists anticipate that headline inflation will be 8.2% Y/Y for May vs. 8.3% in April and see core CPI after backing out food and energy costs trickling down to 5.9% from 6.2%.
Earnings spotlight: Monday, June 6 – Coupa Software (COUP).
Earnings spotlight: Tuesday, June 7 – United Natural Foods (UNFI), J.M. Smucker (SJM), Academy Sports + Outdoors (ASO), Dave & Buster’s Entertainment (PLAY), and Guidewire Software (GWRE).
Earnings spotlight: Wednesday, June 8 – Thor Industries (THO), Campbell Soup (CPB), Bausch + Lomb Corporation (BLCO), and Five Below (FIVE).
Earnings spotlight: Thursday, June 9 – Nio (NIO), Signet Jewelers (SIG), DocuSign (DOCU), Rent the Runway (RENT), and Stitch Fix (SFIX).
IPO watch: No new IPOs are expected to start trading.
Dividend watch: It is a light week of anticipated dividend boosts with the earnings season winding down. Dividend payout boosts are anticipated from UnitedHealth (UNH) to $1.65 from $1.45, Caterpillar (CAT) to $1.20 from $1.11, Essential Properties () to $0.27 from $0.26, and Clorox (NYSE:CLX) to $1.20 from $1.16. Credit Suisse came out this week with an intriguing list of its favorite dividend aristocrats for investors to chew on.
Apple (AAPL) will hold its Worlwide Developers Conference to expectations that updates to iOS/iPad OS, macOS, tvOS, and watchOS, and other software reveals will be made. Ahead of WWDC, the company teased an update to the Swift open-source programming language. Analysts think there is a chance of a “one more thing” hardware surprise, as well as a potential announcement of a NFL Sunday Ticket contract win.
Stock split: The four-for-one stock split for DexCom (DXCM) will become effective on June 10.
|SA Morning BriefingTrending Articles – Saturday, Jun 04|
Exxon Mobil And Chevron: Heed Buffett, Ignore The D.C. Noise
By Envision Research
Goldman Sachs Got It Totally Wrong, Providing Buying Opportunity On Lithium Americas By Austin Craig
NIO: Cheap For A Reason By The Asian Investor
Is AMD Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold Now? By The Alpha Sieve
Tesla’s Continuing CrashBy James Hanshaw
Warner Bros. Discovery: This Is Getting Ridiculous By WideAlpha
Don’t Buy Realty Income, Buy STORE Capital Instead By Samuel Smith
Ares Capital Stock: 2 Reasons A Dividend Cut Could Be Coming
Energy In The New Cold War By Rida Morwa
Sentiment Speaks: Big Bond Rally Is Coming Despite The Fed By Avi Gilburt
SPY: Targets For This Bounce
by Tom Lloyd SeekingAlpha
May 29, 2022 10:13 AM ETSPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY)
- The easy target is ~$420 and the difficult target to hit is ~$430.
- Price has a breakout above the 20-day, moving average downtrend at $403 and is now targeting the 50-day downtrend, currently at $427.
- The easy money in playing this bounce is over. The bounce will continue at a slower pace as sellers are ready to unload some more of their losers.
- Price levels where they bought in the past and now will be happy to sell during this bear market.
US tech shares CRASH – is this the buying opportunity of the year?
Netflix is the biggest worry as it has been hit hard by the end of lockdowns and tough competition from rivals, says Walter Price, manager of specialist investment fund Allianz Technology.
Consumers are feeling the squeeze as prices rise faster than wages, while new growth areas such as the metaverse, beloved of Facebook founder Mark Zuckenberg, remain unproven.
SeekingAlfa Market Digest Friday, 20 May 2022
- More Crypto Regulation: Thank The Federal Reserve
- MicroStrategy approach to bitcoin won’t alter despite market slump, WSJ
- Luna: Not All Stablecoins Are Created Equal.
- Bankman-Fried’s FTX crypto trading app adds stock and ETF trading.
- Shopify dives deeper into crypto payments after Crypto.com deal; shares jump.
S&P 500 Cons Staples Sector SPDR (XLP)
76.95 +1.14 (+1.50%) 05/13/22 [NYSE Arca]
76.91 x 5 76.95 x 1
PRE-MARKET 76.95 +1.14 (+1.50%) 05:58 ET
May 15, 2022
|$XLP & $XLE are green over the last 7 trading days.|
Last week’s chart was $AMD, which ended the week flat.
May 11, 2022
$GIS – Near all-time highs.
Let’ check with barchar
Weighted Alpha +17.39
5-Day Change +1.13 (+1.60%)
60-Month Beta 0.45
Price/Earnings ttm 19.71
Earnings Per Share ttm 3.73
Annual Dividend & Yield 2.04 (2.78%)
Optimize Your Portfolio with SeekingAlfa Market Insights Below:
May 09, 2022
- Crypto carnage: Bitcoin under $34K, down 50% from all-time high.
- BitNile sees Q1 prelim revenue growth of 142%
PayPal: The Investment Case Just Died
Bright Spots In Market Carnage:
- Mortgage REITs have been a bright spot amid the carnage over the past two weeks
- Healthcare REITs were also one of the few places to hide after earnings results showed stabilizing fundamentals in the troubled skilled nursing and senior housing sectors. Elsewhere, a pair of hotel REITs announced dividend increases.
- Lumen Technologies: 9% Yield, Guidance Raised, Dividend Safe
- Sea Limited: More Pain Ahead Before Reversing
- Crescent Point Energy: Still Has Legs
eToro Exclusive Daily Update
- Earnings season continues with Tyson Foods
- Under Armour crashes as Wall Street seen lower
- IAG sends UK100 lower
- Cryptos decline: The crypto market was mostly lower this morning, with the majority of top 10 cryptos registering losses. Bitcoin was down around 2% at time of writing, trading above $33,000. Ethereum and Cardano were down around 3% each, and XRP registered small losses. Outside the top 10, Tron registered gains of approximately 1%.
- Oil prices lower: The black gold prices were seen lower this morning, on fears that a worldwide recession would decrease demand for the commodity, with investors looking to European Union discussions on a Russian oil embargo, which is likely to constrain global supplies.
|Asian markets lower: Markets in the East were seen lower this morning, with the China50 and JPN225 were down more than 1%, and the HKG50 registered losses of over 2% at time of writing.|
|DISH Network plummets 19%: Shares of satellite television company were down 19.2% following its lower-than-expected earnings results.|
|Europe opens lower: The UK100 was seen 59 points lower, the GER40 was down 67 points, and the FRA40 dropped 164 points.|
May 04, 2022
CleanSpark – The Most Overlooked Publicly Traded Bitcoin Miner
Global Investing: Positives For Lithium Americas- Government Money, An Australian Investment, And Legal Resolution
NIO: A Real Problem
ETF & Portfolio Strategy:
- Despite robust corporate profitability and household debt service coverage, recession fears have increased due to slowing GDP growth, tightening Fed policy, plunging consumer sentiment, and geopolitical uncertainty.
- Greater perceived risks in financial markets often drive investors to attempt market timing, a strategy that rarely works and can be costly long-term.
- Staying fully invested, but shifting equity allocations to low beta, high quality, and consistent dividend payers/growers can help dampen downside exposure.
Equinor: Gushing Cash
- Earnings of $5.18 billion beat $4.85 billion estimate that had already been raised.
- Quarterly free cash flow of close to $13 billion boosts net cash position.
- Gas supplied to Europe up 10%. Company is an essential entity for European energy needs.
- Added $1.33 billion to share repurchase program, still leaving the company with massive excess cash balances.
May 02, 2022
Cryptocurrency Daily Digest
Bitcoin: Elliott Wave Is Still Intact
The Elliott Wave is still intact on Bitcoin’s chart, indicating Bitcoin is still moving in a bullish channel.
Microsoft: 20% Off Highs, But Still Not A Bargain
BCAT: Deep Discount And Attractive 7.83% Distribution Yield
NextEra Energy And VPU: Worst Time In A Decade To Buy Utilities
Blackstone: A $1 Trillion ‘Strong Buy’ Private Equity Juggernaut
Google: A Truly Undervalued Large Cap
The highly elevated VIX of +30 is telling us that we should expect 1% to +2% swings every day.
Don’t let the sharp selling push you to panic and sell – Powell’s tough talk and rate rise will bring clarity to the market.
Baytex Energy: 2022 Projected Positive Cash Flow Increases To More Than $700 Million
Best Dividend Aristocrats For May 2022: $NOBL
- Chevron (CVX) +40.23%
- Exxon (XOM) +36.48%
- Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) +34.23%
- Nucor (NUE) +30.66%
- AbbVie (ABBV) +20.99%
Amazon’s Stock May Have Much Further To Drop Amid Weak Results
REITs to the rescue!
With inflation at its highest level since 1981, we could see seven rate hikes in 2022 alone. But this is exactly when REITs have shined brightest, with a proven record of outperformance…
Picking the highest quality REITs: The trifecta approach
Crown Castle International: Buy This Inflation-Crushing REIT And Sleep Well At Night
Real estate – the glue that holds the world together
Whatever the talking heads say about the economy week-to-week, people still need places to live and work. With REITs you can participate in income-producing real estate without the headache of property management.
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Markel: My Top Stock For A High-Inflation Environment
Apr. 27, 2022 6:00 PM ETMarkel Corporation (MKL)
- A good inflation hedge has offense and defense: pricing power, low vulnerability to higher labor and material costs, high ROIC, modest debt, and a reasonable price.
- Markel, a three generation family company which emphasizes integrity and successfully transitioned to non-family leadership checks these boxes.
- Markel’s insurance business has pricing power and will turn over its bond portfolio at higher rates; CEO Tom Gayner is a legendary investor and Markel Ventures’s growth helps outrun inflation.
- Markel’s revenues have quadrupled in 10 years with a CAGR around 15% and Net Income has grown at a rate over 20%.
- Markel has lumpy earnings but has shareholders who accept a long term perspective; it’s an all-weather growth stock which will shine in high inflation.
Last week healthcare, energy, and utilities were the top performers.
Stock #1: Under-the-Radar Semiconductor Player Rapidly Accelerates Chipmaking Capacity
Stock #2: Already Up +207% in 2 Years and Demand for Its Products Is Unrelenting
Stock #3: Retailer Flourishing Through the Pandemic Already Owns 45+ Brands
Stock #4: Margins Soar for This Company as It Helps Homeowners Control Energy Costs
Here are some recent winners from Zacks short-term trading portfolios:
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